Jackson Hole 2019 and Recession Debate

Submitted by Lars Toomre on Tue, 08/20/2019 - 07:30

This week no doubt will be full of much debate on a number of macro economic topics.

Lars Toomre has personally said the recession started around April 1st. The transportation sector would say it started about eight months ago. The ADP small business payroll numbers suggest SMEs are bleeding jobs that the government statistics are not yet picking up. Germany and Italy are definitely in recession and there is considerable question about whether the rest of Europe is as well.

Yet the American President and his co-horts insist that the American economy remains strong. Lars is very curious how President Trump justifies that hope with his calls for the Federal Reserve to cut borrowing costs by 100 basis points and even do some Quantitative Easing ("QE").

The political reality is that Trump has virtually zero chance of getting re-elected if the US is in a major recession before September 2020. Therefore, expect every government report to be biased to a good economic story... Trust Brass Rat Capital LLC ("BRC"), President Trump will use every single lever he is able to lawfully or not!!