As Lars Toomre writes this post on August 23, 2019, the S&P 500 index has a value of 2874. It is slightly after noon EDT. Lars is posting this to record that he thinks the index will close below 2845 on the day.
Numerous people have been asking Lars Toomre what he thinks the rate change news will be after the Friday morning speech by Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell.
This week no doubt will be full of much debate on a number of macro economic topics.
Lars Toomre has personally said the recession started around April 1st. The transportation sector would say it started about eight months ago. The ADP small business payroll numbers suggest SMEs are bleeding jobs that the government statistics are not yet picking up. Germany and Italy are definitely in recession and there is considerable question about whether the rest of Europe is as well.
