Forecast: S&P 500 to Close Week Below 2845

Submitted by Lars Toomre on Fri, 08/23/2019 - 12:08

As Lars Toomre writes this post on August 23, 2019, the S&P 500 index has a value of 2874. It is slightly after noon EDT. Lars is posting this to record that he thinks the index will close below 2845 on the day.

There is virtually little liquidity in many of the Capital Markets and what the US President is doing in aggressively bashing the Federal Reserve makes little sense. As a former trader and portfolio manager, I would be positioning myself for this weekend with minimal positions. Why take any risks with investment or speculative positions given there is so much risk of volatility???

UPDATE:  Lars missed the predicted 2845 value by 2.11 as there was a very small rally at the close from the low of 2,834.97. The rally in the last three minutes was very weak.

Lars' simplistic prediction for next week is simple. Four weeks down in a row and one is wondering what will happen in the week before Labor Day? Expect considerable volatility as the market whipsaws around on relatively light volume. Lars' suspicion is that the Capital Markets S&P 500 will end the week lower than where it starts 2847.11 (absent a US-China trade deal).